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| The results are a personal blow to Mr Modi, who has never fallen short of a majority |
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has secured a third consecutive term in a tighter-than-expected general election. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is leading in the 543-seat parliament but is projected to fall short of a majority, necessitating reliance on coalition partners who have gained additional seats.
The results mark a personal setback for Modi, who has previously secured majorities as both the Chief Minister of Gujarat and Prime Minister of India, and has dominated the country's politics for a decade. This outcome signifies a surprising revival for the Congress Party-led INDIA opposition alliance, contradicting earlier predictions and diverging sharply from both exit polls and pre-election surveys.
Over 640 million people participated in the seven-week-long election, with nearly half of the voters being women, making it a "world record" according to election authorities.
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| The opposition has staged a remarkable comeback under Rahul Gandhi |
Like many world leaders facing third-term elections, Modi has managed to secure another term, albeit with a diminished majority. The BJP remains India’s largest party by seats, and with coalition support, Modi could match the record of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first premier, who also secured three terms. However, the significant loss of over 50 seats dims the triumph, especially given Modi’s ambitious campaign goal of securing 400 seats, which made the actual result seem underwhelming.
The Congress Party is jubilant, while some BJP supporters are disheartened by the results. Despite the BJP emerging as the largest party, the gap between expectations and reality has caused disappointment among many of its supporters. Modi's supporters attribute his third-term victory to stable governance, continuity, effective welfare programs, and the perception of enhancing India's global image.
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| Mr Modi appealed to his Hindu nationalist base by building the Ram temple in Ayodhya |
Modi's base appreciates his fulfillment of key promises such as revoking the autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir, building the Ram temple in Ayodhya, and implementing a controversial citizenship law. Many BJP-ruled states have tightened regulations on interfaith marriages.
The BJP's drop in seats may be linked to issues like joblessness, rising prices, growing inequality, and a controversial army recruitment reform. Modi's divisive campaign rhetoric, particularly against Muslims, could have also alienated some voters.
Modi’s slogan "Ab ki baar, 400 paar," aimed at securing more than 400 seats for his NDA alliance, may have backfired, with fears of constitutional changes raising concerns among the poor. The BJP’s largest setback occurred in Uttar Pradesh (UP), a crucial state in national politics, where both Modi and Rahul Gandhi hold seats.
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| The election results show that Brand Modi has lost some of its shine |
Modi's popularity has been attributed to his branding skills, turning routine events into spectacles, and strategic messaging. However, the election results indicate that even Modi is not immune to anti-incumbency, offering renewed hope to the opposition.
India has a history of coalition governments, some of which have been instrumental in implementing economic reforms. If the BJP forms the government, it will be more dependent on allies, requiring a consultative and deliberative approach, making it vulnerable to collapse if allies feel neglected.
The election results mark a shift away from a one-party dominant system, restoring "normal politics" where power is shared and contested among various parties. This resurgence of the opposition, led by Rahul Gandhi, signals a significant shift. The opposition's spirited campaign narrowed the gap despite a partisan media and fewer resources.
Looking ahead, the BJP faces substantial competition in upcoming state elections, with contests in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana, Delhi, and Bihar.
A potential third term for Modi means more work and healing for India. While the economy is growing due to government spending, inequality is rising, and private investment and consumption need to increase. The poor and middle class require more disposable income, which depends on job creation. As younger voters, who make up a significant portion of the population, grow more ambitious and frustrated, they may drift away from the BJP.
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| Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi have forged a successful coalition in Uttar Pradesh |
Modi has faced criticism for marginalizing Muslims, India’s largest minority, and stifling dissent, with leading opposition figures jailed on what they claim are trumped-up charges. Third terms are often rocky for leaders, with unforeseen events potentially disrupting government plans.
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| N Chandrababu Naidu's regional TDP is an ally of Mr Modi |
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| What worked for India's Modi and what didn’t? |
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