BBC India reporters on why some voters said no to Modi

 

What worked for India's Modi and what didn’t?

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When Narendra Modi aimed for a sweeping victory with 400 out of 543 seats for his alliance, few doubted his ambition. The Indian Prime Minister and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have been a formidable force since coming to power a decade ago. However, while Modi and his alliance are on track to secure a majority, it falls short of the overwhelming win they envisioned when counting began this morning.

BBC correspondents in India share their insights on the unexpected election results and their implications for the world's largest democracy.

Questions over the 'Hindu card' as a campaign tool

Religion plays a significant role in every Indian election, and this one was no exception. In January, Modi inaugurated a Hindu temple at a contentious site disputed between Hindus and Muslims, which was expected to bolster his party's election prospects. However, few anticipated the BJP’s campaign to be as polarizing as it was, with some of the most aggressive rhetoric coming directly from Modi.

At an April campaign rally, Modi remarked, "When their (the opposition Congress) government was in power they had said Muslims have the first right on the nation’s wealth. This means they’ll collect the wealth and give it to whom? To those who have many children. To infiltrators." Some analysts saw this as an effort to rally his conservative Hindu base.

Yet, the results from key constituencies, including the BJP's loss in the temple city of Ayodhya, suggest this strategy did not yield the desired effect. Instead, the aggressive use of the 'Hindu card' may have backfired, potentially uniting Muslim minorities against the BJP. This raises questions about the efficacy and consequences of such divisive campaign tactics moving forward.

'Brand Modi is beginning to fray'

Marketing consultants have attributed Narendra Modi's enduring popularity to his exceptional branding skills, turning routine events into grand spectacles and crafting astute messages. "He strikes a deep chord with his aura of clarity and strength, speaks simultaneously to anxieties and aspirations, communicates using emotionally resonant metaphors, understands the power of branding key initiatives to generate a sense of activity and purpose, and knows the power of enigmatic silence," wrote renowned brand consultant Santosh Desai in 2017.

Over the years, Modi has also marketed himself as a cultural icon, engaging a diverse populace both domestically and internationally, solidifying his status as a significant figure in Indian politics. A weak opposition and a largely favorable media landscape have bolstered his brand. "He's pop culture in 70% of this country," commented a brand consultant at a conclave last year.

However, recent general election results suggest that Brand Modi is beginning to lose its luster. Modi, who has historically never underperformed or failed to secure a majority in elections, is facing a different scenario this time. Tuesday's results indicate that some of his appeal may be fading, and even Modi is not immune to the effects of anti-incumbency.

Since the formation of the opposition INDIA alliance in July 2023, comprising over two dozen parties, the Modi-led government has depicted it as a coalition of self-serving leaders aiming to personally target Modi and harm the country. While ruling BJP leaders, along with many analysts and pollsters, had predicted an easy victory for Modi, the Congress-led opposition bloc focused on issues like rural distress, inflation, and rampant unemployment in their messaging and public meetings. Their rallying cries were "The Constitution is in danger" and the country’s "democratic institutions are under attack" under a "divisive" Modi. 

A 4,200-mile (6,700 km) long march by Rahul Gandhi, a senior Congress party leader, which began months before the elections, was initially criticized for its timing. However, analysts believe it energized supporters and galvanized party cadres. The opposition also increased its social media presence, aggressively challenging the BJP, which has long dominated India's digital landscape.

Welfare schemes of Modi rivals 'better connect' with voters in southern India

Election results were eagerly watched by millions across India

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Mr Modi's BJP is still struggling to make a major impact in southern India, although its vote share is set to increase.

It won 25 seats in Karnataka alone in 2019. But this time it is losing at least 10 seats in the same state to the Congress party.

It is on the verge of doubling the four seats it won in Telangana and a couple of seats in Andhra Pradesh because of its alliance with the regional Telugu Desam Party, headed by the IT industry friendly Chandrababu Naidu.

In Tamil Nadu, the regional DMK led alliance is on the verge of repeating its 2019 performance of a clean sweep.

And in Kerala, the Communist government and the Congress-led front seem to have kept the BJP from the Lok Sabha.

In short, the development focused welfare schemes of the non-BJP parties appear to be making a better connect with the aspirations of the voters down South.

• Imran Qureshi, BBC Hindi in Bangalore

So what next? Result may force Modi to 'slow down'

Mr Modi projected himself as the voice of the Global South – a leader who acted as a bridge between the developing and the developed world.

The Indian PM’s global heft was grounded in the massive support he had at home. He provided a sense of continuity to global leaders and alliances.

Mr Modi will now head a coalition government. He is likely to have bipartisan support on foreign policy, but he will have to take allies into confidence before taking crucial decisions that affect global politics.

That might force him to slow down, and adopt a more consultative decision making policy.

So far India has defiantly practised its policy of strategic autonomy in foreign affairs, and that might not change.

But what will change is Mr Modi’s ability to take quick decisions on global affairs – something he often did without consulting his own allies or the opposition.

• Vikas Pandey, BBC News in Dehli

Coalition government would be 'litmus test' for Modi

Modi supporters celebrate in his constituency of Varanasi

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Be it as Gujarat state chief minister or as prime minister in his last two terms, Narendra Modi has run a full majority BJP government. Coalition partners did come along to give a hand, but the government’s future was never in their hands.

Current numbers clearly indicate the BJP is falling short of majority which means Mr Modi will seek support from allies. He has got used to running a centralised government and party under him which will have to change keeping the new reality in mind.

He will need to be a lot more mindful of the concerns and sensitivities of coalition partners and that doesn’t come easy to him, one analyst noted.

India is not new to coalition politics, but coalition governments are often prone to instability. So it would be a litmus test for both Mr Modi and the BJP over their adaptability to a changed scenario.

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