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| The plan aims to wind down the war after eight months of fighting |
For the leaders of both Hamas and Israel, ending the war in Gaza has become a high-stakes battle for survival. The terms of the conflict's conclusion will significantly impact their political futures and power. For Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, it could also determine his physical survival.
This dynamic partly explains the failure of previous negotiations and why the question of permanently ending the fighting has been postponed to the final stages of the plan outlined by US President Joe Biden on Friday. Transitioning from a limited hostage-for-prisoner deal to discussions about a permanent ceasefire, as Mr. Biden acknowledged, will be “difficult.” Nonetheless, this transition is crucial to the success or failure of the latest deal.
The US has submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council in support of President Biden’s ceasefire plan, which involves ending the conflict, releasing hostages, and reconstructing Palestinian territories.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has compelling domestic reasons to approach this deal incrementally. Phase one, according to Mr. Biden, involves the release of dozens of hostages, both living and dead, which would be welcomed in Israel, where failing to free all those held by Hamas is seen as a significant moral failing of Mr. Netanyahu's war management.
However, Hamas is unlikely to release its most politically sensitive hostages—women, the wounded, and the elderly—without assurances that Israel won’t resume the war once they are home. Israeli media leaks suggest that Netanyahu has indicated to parliamentary colleagues that Israel intends to keep its options open, including resuming fighting until Hamas is "eliminated," which is a minimum demand of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners. Without their support, Netanyahu risks early elections and the continuation of his corruption trial.
Netanyahu needs to maintain long-term flexibility to gain support for any initial hostage deal. Conversely, Hamas leaders are likely to demand permanent ceasefire guarantees upfront. The failure of previous deals to bridge this gap suggests that the success of the current efforts will depend on Netanyahu’s ability to maneuver within his hard-right government and how far Hamas leaders are willing to consider alternatives.
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| For many Israelis, the failure so far to free all the hostages is a moral stain on the government |
Over the weekend, Mr. Netanyahu spoke about the need to destroy Hamas’s “military and governing capabilities” to ensure the group no longer poses a threat to Israel. While it is widely acknowledged that Hamas has suffered significant losses to its military infrastructure, and some suggest it has also lost public support and control within Gaza, top leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif remain at large. Their continued presence in Gaza would be a political disaster for Netanyahu if Israeli forces withdraw without capturing or killing them.
On Monday, a US State Department spokesman noted that although Hamas's capabilities had "steadily degraded" in recent months, it remains a threat and the US does not believe the group can be eliminated militarily. The White House stated that President Biden had confirmed Israel’s readiness to proceed with the terms offered to Hamas, but indicated that Hamas was now the only obstacle to a deal. Additionally, Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari expressed confidence that the military could ensure Israel's security in the event of a truce.
Yanir Cozin, diplomatic correspondent with Israel’s military radio station GLZ, believes Netanyahu will not end the war without framing it as a success. "A deal that leaves Hamas is a big failure," he said. "Eight months on, when you haven’t achieved any of the war goals – not finishing Hamas, bringing all the hostages back, or securing the borders – then he doesn’t want to end the war. But he also understands that he cannot leave it until the next Israeli election in 2026." Cozin suggests that Netanyahu might maintain his government’s stability if he can claim to have exiled Sinwar and Deif and if border residents can safely return home. However, these conditions are far from guaranteed.
Hamas is unlikely to agree to the exile or surrender of its top figures, though internal splits are emerging between its leaders inside and outside Gaza. Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak told Israeli radio that President Biden announced the deal after seeing that Netanyahu would only move forward if Sinwar refused the terms. Barak highlighted the improbability of Sinwar agreeing to terms under the threat of being targeted even after releasing the hostages.
Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Israelis displaced by the Hamas attacks on October 7 are closely watching Netanyahu’s next moves. Among them is Yarin Sultan, a 31-year-old mother of three who fled her home in Sderot the morning after the attacks. She refuses to return until Sinwar and Deif are no longer free. "This ceasefire will kill us," she told the BBC. "We will free the hostages, but a few years from now you will be the next hostages, you will be the next people who get murdered, the women that are raped – all this will happen again."
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