After more than seven months of war, analysts say Israel’s aims may be to destroy Gaza and displace its population
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| Palestinian women sit on the rubble of a residential building destroyed by an Israeli attack in Nuseirat in central Gaza on April 18 [Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images] |
Every day, the scenes from Gaza remain distressingly consistent: Israeli bombs killing civilians, Palestinians fleeing their homes and makeshift shelters, and Hamas targeting Israeli forces while posting the footage online.
After nearly 230 days of fighting, experts say Israel’s war in Gaza shows no signs of ending soon. What is Israel trying to achieve, and do its objectives align with those of its closest ally, the United States?
### A Status Quo
Palestinian rights advocates fear that the war on Gaza is becoming the new status quo—another prolonged chapter of suffering and dispossession in Palestine’s history. While Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated that Israel has "no intention of permanently occupying Gaza or displacing its civilian population," some high-level members of his government suggest otherwise.
Certain far-right Israeli ministers have openly called for the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, and other officials have proposed the "voluntary migration" of the territory’s residents. Last year, Israel Hayom reported that Netanyahu had tasked an aide with developing a plan to "thin out" Gaza’s population.
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Egypt, the only country bordering Gaza aside from Israel, has vehemently opposed the mass displacement of Palestinians, which experts argue would amount to ethnic cleansing.
According to Khalil, Israel's plans for the mass displacement of Palestinians have not changed. The ongoing offensive in southern Gaza, particularly in Rafah, has heightened this prospect, as many residents there have already fled violence and bombing in the north. If the Israeli government fails to expel the Palestinians, Khalil believes it will attempt to confine most of Gaza’s population to small areas, preventing them from returning home and subjecting them to bombing, surveillance, starvation, and disease.
### Prolonged Conflict
Adam Shapiro, a political analyst, shared a similar assessment. “Israel is really trying to make any semblance of life impossible in Gaza,” he told Al Jazeera. “The goal is basically to make it impossible for people to continue living there and to compel them to leave.”
Shapiro added that Israel has managed to level large parts of Gaza, starve its population, and kill more than 35,000 people without facing significant international pressure to end the war.
“It’s a status quo that seems sustainable for many actors over a long period,” he said.
Matthew Duss, the executive vice president at the Center for International Policy, a US-based think tank, also warned that the conflict risks becoming protracted. He noted that Israel’s lack of strategy in Gaza could have “catastrophic” consequences for Palestinians, the US, and Israel itself. “You have a war of vengeance carried out by a state with the full backing of a global superpower that shields it from any consequences,” Duss told Al Jazeera.
US Vision for Gaza
In the US, President Joe Biden's administration has articulated a complex vision for the war and its outcome.
Washington supports Israel’s efforts to eliminate Hamas’s military capabilities while also seeking a ceasefire deal that would temporarily halt fighting, release Israeli captives, and increase humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Simultaneously, Biden officials have pursued an agreement to establish diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which they believe would boost the prospects of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For Gaza, the US envisions the territory eventually being governed by a “reformed” Palestinian Authority (PA).
However, the US plan faces numerous obstacles. Netanyahu has consistently rejected the idea of establishing a Palestinian state, and Israeli leaders oppose the return of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to Gaza.
Even Benny Gantz, an Israeli war cabinet minister and Netanyahu’s primary domestic political rival, recently stated that neither Hamas nor PA President Mahmoud Abbas can govern Gaza after the war.
Regarding the normalization push to forge ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, Duss criticized it as “strategically misguided.” “Continuing to pursue this reveals a puzzling fixation on such an agreement as a means to derive something positive from this entire catastrophe,” Duss remarked.
Defeating Hamas
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In the immediate term, it remains unclear how Washington envisions achieving a permanent end to the ongoing violence in Gaza while advocating for the total defeat of Hamas—an objective that US officials are beginning to recognize may be unattainable.
Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell acknowledged this sentiment, stating, “Sometimes, when we listen closely to Israeli leaders, they talk mostly about the idea of achieving some form of sweeping victory on the battlefield—a total victory. I don’t think we believe that is likely or possible.”
As the prospect of a military victory for Israel becomes increasingly improbable, Duss argued that insisting on eradicating Hamas before ending the war is a “nonsensical position.”
While Israel claimed to have dismantled Hamas’s “military infrastructure” in northern Gaza in January, its military is once again bombing neighborhoods and clashing with Palestinian fighters in the Jabalia refugee camp and parts of Gaza City in the north.
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According to Khalil, a history professor, Israel has altered its stance on how to eliminate Hamas since the start of the war in October, aiming to prolong and escalate the conflict. For instance, Israel initially alleged that Hamas’s headquarters were at al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City—an accusation that, despite US officials' support, was proven false.
Now, Khalil said Israel has changed its stance, asserting instead that “Hamas is actually located in Rafah. All their guys are in Rafah.” But, he added, Israel still has to justify restricting access to the north. “Why can’t we let Palestinians go back to northern Gaza? Because Hamas is still there. We have to do ‘mop-up operations’,” Khalil said, mimicking Israeli officials. He added that Israel is ultimately setting the stage for an open-ended war. The day after As the war rages, US and Israeli officials have been openly discussing what may come after the fighting ends. The day after As the war rages, US and Israeli officials have been openly discussing what may come after the fighting ends. Netanyahu wants the Israeli military to exercise indefinite control over Gaza — a possibility his own Defence Minister Yoav Gallant rejected last week, calling instead for a Palestinian entity to replace Hamas’s governance. But what entity might fill that void? Experts doubt the PA’s ability to assert control over Gaza.
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