Israeli Official Predicts Gaza War Will Extend Beyond U.S. Elections
The conflict in Gaza will continue until at least the end of the year, according to Israel’s National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi. This extension means the war will overlap with the U.S. presidential elections in November.
The prolonged fighting raises concerns about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, which is already suffering from famine, mass displacement, and daily violence that has resulted in over 36,000 deaths since October 7.
Experts suggest that an extended war could negatively impact U.S. President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign. Biden faces declining public support due to his unwavering backing of Israel. Khalil Jahshan, executive director of the Arab Center Washington DC, warned that if the conflict extends beyond the U.S. elections on November 5, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could outlast Biden in office.
“I would love to say that scenario is unrealistic, but I can’t. That scenario is real. And it could happen on November 5,” Jahshan told Al Jazeera.
Netanyahu’s political interest in prolonging the war to bolster his standing contrasts with Biden's situation. Polls in the U.S. currently favor former Republican President Donald Trump over Biden by a small margin. In Israel, Netanyahu's popularity is also recovering, surpassing his main rival, war cabinet minister Benny Gantz.
Josh Ruebner, a lecturer at Georgetown University, emphasized that the ongoing war in Gaza would further harm Biden’s re-election chances. “The signs are clear. The writing is on the wall,” Ruebner told Al Jazeera. “If Biden continues this lockstep support for Israel for another seven months, it’s not only going to kill tens of thousands more Palestinians, but it’s also going to lose him the election.”
A recent poll by the Arab American Institute (AAI) showed Biden’s support among Arab Americans in key swing states has plummeted to 18 percent, down from 60 percent in 2020, largely due to his policies on Gaza. James Zogby, AAI’s president, warned that continuing the war through the U.S. election would be politically “dangerous” for Biden and the Democratic Party.
“Young people, Black people, Asian people are following this daily, seeing a genocide unfolding. They’re not insensitive to what they’re seeing,” Zogby said. “They’re horrified. And then the president says, ‘No red line was crossed. Let’s just continue doing what we’re doing.’ It is infuriating and hurtful.”
Despite the mounting criticism, Biden has shown no signs of changing his pro-Israel stance. Last month, he signed off on an additional $14 billion in aid to Israel and planned a $1 billion arms sale despite earlier threats to withhold weapons if Israel invaded Rafah.
Ruebner noted that Biden’s campaign appears to be in denial about the impact of his foreign policy on his re-election prospects. “There’s a lot of fantasy and make-believe going on in Biden’s world that this is not impacting his chances to be re-elected,” he said. “But it clearly is.”
Polls by Data for Progress and Zeteo indicated that 56 percent of Democratic respondents believe Israel is committing “genocide” in Gaza. However, some U.S. media reports suggest that Biden and his allies doubt the polls showing him trailing Trump.
Analysts believe that Israel’s right-wing leaders, including Netanyahu, would prefer to deal with Trump. Jahshan noted that Netanyahu’s camp views Biden’s calls for aid and protection of civilians in Gaza as a “nuisance.”
Although Biden frequently expresses support for Netanyahu, the two leaders have had a tense relationship, especially recently. Netanyahu ignored Biden’s warnings against invading Rafah, and Israel continues to enforce a strict siege on Gaza despite U.S. demands for more humanitarian aid.
Biden’s unwavering support for Israel, despite ignored pleas about Gaza, stands in contrast to Trump’s anticipated approach. Trump, entangled in legal issues, has promised to crack down on pro-Palestine student protesters if re-elected. His presidency saw a significant shift in U.S. policy toward favoring Israel’s right-wing leadership.
“Trump is unpredictable. He could go in all kinds of different directions, mostly contradictory. My guess is that he will go in a worse direction than Biden [in support of Israel],” Jahshan concluded.
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