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China states that the military drills encircling Taiwan are designed to test its ability to 'seize control.'

 


China's military drills around Taiwan are designed to test its ability to "seize power" over the island, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced Friday as its forces embarked on a second day of large-scale exercises encircling its democratic neighbor.


These drills are the largest in over a year and come just days after Taiwan inaugurated its new president, Lai Ching-te, who is strongly opposed by Beijing for advocating the island’s sovereignty and distinct identity.


Beijing has labeled Lai a “dangerous separatist” and condemned his inauguration speech on Monday, in which he urged China to stop its intimidation of Taiwan—a stance that has intensified under Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The PLA, significantly more powerful than Taiwan's military, began the exercises on Thursday morning, deploying warships and fighter jets around Taiwan and its outlying islands. The drills were described as “a strong punishment for separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces.”


On Friday, the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command stated that it continued the drills on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to “test the ability to jointly seize power, launch joint attacks, and occupy key areas.”


China's military drills surround Taiwan

The drills, the largest in over a year, come just days after Taiwan inaugurated its new president, Lai Ching-te, who is a staunch advocate for Taiwan's sovereignty.


* Taiwan extends its ADIZ further north, but only the section east of the median line is recognized by the United States

Sources: Chinese People’s Liberation Army; US Federal Aviation Administration; Flanders Marine Institute, Maritime Boundaries Geodatabase; US Congressional Research Service; Mapcreator

Graphic: Henrik Pettersson,

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China’s ruling Communist Party views Taiwan as part of its territory, despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to take the island by force if necessary.

The vast majority of Taiwanese do not wish to live under Chinese rule. However, Xi Jinping, China’s most authoritarian leader in a generation, has emphasized that the island’s “inevitable reunification” with the mainland cannot be postponed indefinitely.

The two-day exercises, involving joint operations of China’s army, navy, air force, and rocket force, are being conducted in the Taiwan Strait—a narrow body of water separating the island from mainland China—as well as to the north, south, and east of Taiwan, according to the PLA.

For the first time, the PLA drills also involved China’s Coast Guard, operating in areas around Taiwan’s outlying islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin, located just off the southeastern coast of China.
CCTV aired footage on Friday showing PLA soldiers moving mobile artillery and missile systems into position, though no live fire was shown.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry condemned China’s military exercises as “irrational provocations” and deployed its own sea, air, and ground forces in response.

Between 6 a.m. Thursday and 6 a.m. Friday, the ministry detected 49 Chinese aircraft, including 35 that crossed the Median Line, an informal demarcation in the Taiwan Strait that Beijing does not recognize but had largely respected until recent years.

A total of 19 Chinese warships and seven coast guard vessels were detected near the Taiwan Strait, according to the ministry.

Taiwan’s presidential office stated Thursday that it is “regrettable to see China threatening Taiwan’s democracy and freedom and regional peace and stability with unilateral military provocations,” adding that Taiwan has the “confidence and ability to protect national security.”


A large screen in Beijing shows a Chinese fighter jet taking part in China's two-day military drills around Taiwan on May 23, 2020. 
Kyodo News/Getty Images
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First Week in Office

Lai Ching-te has had a busy and politically turbulent start to his presidency after succeeding two-term leader Tsai Ing-wen, beginning a historic third consecutive term for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

The PLA’s drills present the first significant challenge for Lai, testing his ability to manage tensions with Beijing, which has rejected his offers for dialogue and to resume cross-strait tourism and student exchanges.

On Friday, China’s Defense Ministry accused Lai of pushing Taiwan into “a dangerous situation of war” and “playing with fire.”

“Those who play with fire will burn themselves,” ministry spokesperson Wu Qian told reporters, using rhetoric China frequently directs at Taiwan’s government. “Whenever ‘Taiwan independence’ forces provoke us, we will push our countermeasures forward until the complete reunification of the motherland is achieved.”

Domestically, Lai faces turmoil in the legislature, where opposition parties favoring closer ties with China hold a majority and are pushing to impose tighter scrutiny on his administration.

Thousands of mostly young people have taken to the streets to protest the opposition’s attempt to fast-track proposed bills that would grant the parliament more power.

Despite Beijing’s large show of force, life continued as usual in Taiwan, where the 23 million residents have become accustomed to China’s military threats, which have become more frequent and prominent in recent years.

“We are not scared of the Chinese Communist Party, and we have confidence,” an 88-year-old retiree named Liu told CNN. “If the Chinese Communist Party does attack Taiwan, it won’t be easy for them to take Taiwan. Taiwanese people are not afraid of war.”

A 42-year-old mother named Tsai said she wasn’t even aware the PLA drills were taking place. “I believe leaders will prioritize people’s happiness, so I’m not worried. I think peace will be maintained,” she said.


China Coast Guard drill near Taiwan. 
China Coast Guard/Weibo
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 Blockading Taiwan  44444444

China’s military drills serve both to signal intentions internationally and to play to a domestic audience, with state media ramping up coverage of the exercises.

Zhang Chi, a Chinese military expert, told state broadcaster CCTV that the PLA’s exercises focused on “practicing a new mode of blockading Taiwan.”

“Taiwan is an isolated island with weak self-sufficiency. Its economy is export-oriented, and most of its energy consumption relies on imports. Once besieged and blockaded, it can easily lead to economic collapse, turning it into a dead island,” he said.

The exercises south of Taiwan are crucial for the blockade, targeting Kaohsiung port, Taiwan’s largest port and an important naval base, Zhang explained. Drills east of Taiwan are designed to practice cutting off the island’s energy imports, escape routes for “Taiwan independence” forces, and support lines from the US and its allies.

The US maintains close but informal relations with Taiwan and is bound by law to supply the island with weapons for its defense. 

Zhang noted that the drills had achieved “a new breakthrough” by entering waters near Wuqiu and Dongyin, which hold significant geographical importance. “The Taiwanese military views them as the front outposts for Taiwan Strait defense operations. This exercise further squeezed the activity space of the Taiwanese military,” he said.

Analysts highlighted that the involvement of the China Coast Guard near the outlying islands is an important new aspect of these drills, following previous encirclement exercises in August 2022 and April 2023.

“The pressing of Coast Guard and other forces into waters close to those offshore islands is provocative,” said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center. He expects such Chinese activities to continue and become the norm, with Beijing able to turn an exercise into a real military operation at any time.

Craig Singleton, a senior China fellow at the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said China’s pattern of exercises around Taiwan does not signal an imminent invasion threat. “These drills aid in blurring the lines between peace and war, so much so that future exercises could be used as a pretext for an actual invasion,” Singleton said.

However, Singleton and others believe the exercises send a bigger political message than a military one. “Joint Sword - 2024A aims at reactivating the military pressure lever to assert a degree of influence on the new [Taiwan] administration and its narrative,” said Lionel Fatton, assistant professor of international relations at Webster University in Geneva, using China’s name for this week’s drills.

Beijing will use the pressure of the drills to try to increase divisions within Taiwan, potentially weakening the island from the inside. “Constant and visible military pressure on the island will also help polarize the political apparatus, if not the social fabric itself,” Fatton said.
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