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| Ukrainian officials have initiated the evacuation of residents from Vovchansk in Kharkiv as Russian forces have crossed the border and advanced into the area. |
The dynamics of Russia's invasion are undergoing a significant shift in its favor.
For nearly 18 months, the front lines have remained relatively stagnant, with occasional, modest advances by Russian forces.
However, within a week, overstretched Ukrainian troops are struggling to contain the most substantial ground offensive since 2022 in the northeastern Kharkiv region.
"Help is on the way," declares US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a surprise visit to Kyiv, arriving during a precarious moment for Ukraine.
Diplomatic visits from the country's primary military supporter carry considerable weight. The handshakes, discussions over working lunches, and strategic walks typically yield results.
The approval of a $61 billion military aid package in Washington represents the most significant support yet. However, a month later, only a fraction of it has been delivered.
US officials emphasize that some air defense systems, artillery, and missiles are already in the hands of eager Ukrainian soldiers. Blinken asserts, "they will make a difference on the battlefield."
Perhaps those words would have held more significance five days ago, when Ukrainian forces were barely holding their ground along the 1,000km front line.
Now, they are redeploying whatever reserve troops they can to the Kharkiv region, where an estimated 30,000 Russian soldiers continue to advance from across the border.
They have seized at least 50 square miles (130 sq km) of once-liberated territory, adding another layer of hardship to this besieged province.
Russia appears to be employing the same aggressive tactics it used in 2022.
"Moscow's tactics remain consistent," explains Andriy Zadubinnyi, a Ukrainian military spokesman, to the BBC. "They initiate artillery fire and air strikes on Ukrainian positions before launching small-scale attacks."
While Russia's objective of conquering Ukraine remains unchanged, Ukraine's ability to resist has evolved.
In September 2022, a Ukrainian minister, barely able to contain his delight, informed me: "We have so many prisoners of war now!"
Ukrainian forces had outmaneuvered and outsmarted their Russian occupiers, reclaiming over 2,000 sq km (770 square miles) in the Kharkiv region.
Cities like Kupiansk and Izium had returned to Ukrainian control once more.
After a summer of grinding losses for Kyiv, it was a change in momentum no one had predicted. 4444444444444
The country had the wind in its sails, and grounds to believe it could win this war.
A year and a half later, that optimism which filled Kyiv’s corridors of power has gone. Events in Kharkiv are threatening to derail any hopes of liberation.
Those same eastern cities are at risk of falling once more, and thousands are fleeing their homes under constant bombardment.
There’s no doubt the delay of American military aid has played a role in Ukraine’s struggles to contain Russia’s growing dominance.
But so too have mobilisation issues and, in the case of the Kharkiv region, questionable defences and fortifications.
Evacuations are also planned for 115 settlements in the Sumy region further north. Local commanders are anticipating a Russian offensive there too.
It’s why Kyiv’s goal, for now, is simply to stabilise the front line. Although, what’s happening on this new front line means it’s likely to get worse before it gets better.
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